Axel Adler Jr.

Leverage demand has recovered: futures are trading above spot for the first time in a month

Bitcoin futures moved back above spot for the first time in a month and positioning turned green — early signs of returning risk appetite.

Jul 3 Holder behavior

Bitcoin Bottom 2026? First BUY Since Nov 2022, Not Confirmed

Net UTXO Supply Ratio flashed its first BUY since November 2022, but Supply in Loss says the Bitcoin bottom isn't confirmed until SMA90 hits 50%.

Jul 2 Derivatives & sentiment

Buyers are pushing the price higher, but without open interest growth the bounce is stalling

Net taker volume hit +68M while Bitcoin open interest fell 22K BTC. Demand without leverage - watch the 62K reclaim to confirm risk-on.

Jul 1 Liquidity & flows

Exchange Inflows are 50% above February, SOPR is Holding Below 1.0

Bitcoin exchange inflows are 50% above February while SOPR stays below 1.0, signaling heavier supply pressure and realized losses.

Jun 30 Holder behavior

LTH Hold a Record 16M BTC as MVRV Approaches a Three-Year Low

Bitcoin LTH MVRV fell to 1.24, near a yearly low, as price nears the $48.4K cost basis. Record 16M BTC supply signals holding, not capitulation.

Jun 29 Liquidity & flows

135K BTC Has Left US Bitcoin ETFs

Spot Bitcoin ETF demand has flipped to outflows: 135K BTC gone since the Oct 2025 peak and 30-day flow momentum at a record low near -102K BTC.

Jun 26 Holder behavior

Fifth month of selling at a loss, but holder support still sits below the market

Bitcoin Net Realized P/L stays negative a 5th month, but holder realized prices hold support at $48K-$56K. Watch this band for the next move.

Jun 25 Market cycles

Strategy (MSTR) is down 78% from its peak

MSTR is down 78% from its peak and its average BTC cost basis now sits above spot. What Strategy's regime shift means and the $75K level to watch.

Jun 24 Derivatives & sentiment

Bullish demand has dropped to zero - fuel is now on the side of the shorts

Bitcoin Net Taker Volume has stalled at zero while long liquidations dominate at +18.4%. With no buyer demand, BTC's path of least resistance points lower.

Jun 23 Holder behavior

Short-term holders are losing capital: -56%, while LTH show almost no drawdown

STH realized cap drawdown hit -56% while aNUPL turned negative; LTH capital held near base. Pain is concentrated, not full cycle capitulation.

Jun 22 Holder behavior

1256 days without capitulation: LTH supply is maturing, final stress is absent

Bitcoin sales pressure stays silent for 1256 days as LTH realized supply matures toward 15M. Not a capitulation bottom - watch NUPL turning negative.

Jun 19 Holder behavior

Fresh capital is not entering Bitcoin, support is holding at $58.4K

New Investor Flow turned negative at -$1.2B as fresh demand fades. BTC leans on Adjusted Realized Price at $58.4K — the line to hold before $46.7K.