Axel Adler Jr.

Jul 22 Technical analysis

Volatility has fallen 31% in July, leverage is declining: liquidation cascade risk has decreased

Realized volatility sits in the bottom 10% since 2016 while OI/market cap falls for 21 days. Leverage is exiting; watch the 200DMA at 72,666.

Jul 21 Liquidity & flows

Stablecoins Have Been Leaving Exchanges for 35 Straight Days: Demand Is Absent

Stablecoin net flow has stayed negative for 35 days while BTC exchange flows sit neutral near $65K. No buying fuel.

Jul 20 Holder behavior

New capital inflows near yearly lows, STHs continue selling at a loss

New investor realized cap sits near yearly lows and STH SOPR holds below 1.0. Early stabilization; watch for SOPR reclaiming 1.0 to confirm.

Jul 17 Holder behavior

Long-Term Holders Accumulated 371,000 BTC Over the Past 30 Days

Bitcoin LTH supply hit a record 16.34M BTC, with 371K absorbed in 30 days, while CDD 30D stays low at 313M. Scarcity is building, demand is not.

Jul 16 Derivatives & sentiment

Bullish Signal Strengthens as Indicator Agreement Reaches 79%

Bitcoin Regime Score sits at +34.7 with component agreement at 79%. Bullish regime confirmed; watch a move back above +50 or a drop below zero.

Jul 15 Derivatives & sentiment

Bitcoin Gains 3% in 24 Hours on Fresh Demand

Taker Order Pressure flipped to +4.1 while Liquidation Pressure sits at -55.2: the 3.1% rally is real demand, not a short squeeze.

Jul 14 Holder behavior

Market Underwater: Adjusted NUPL Below Zero for Six Weeks

Bitcoin Adjusted NUPL is near -0.13, underwater for six weeks. STH, LTH and aggregate converge; a sustained move above zero confirms a turn.

Jul 13 Derivatives & sentiment

Open Interest Falls 12% in 24 Hours: The Market Is Shedding Leverage

BTC open interest fell 12% in 24h and the pressure index broke below its 30-day average — deleveraging, not new shorts. Watch the 58 reclaim.

Jul 10 Holder behavior

STHs are buying the dip like in February: seller pressure is easing

Bitcoin STH realized pressure flips to buyers at the lows while price holds the $61.6K cohort floor. Watch a reclaim of $71K to confirm.

Jul 9 Derivatives & sentiment

The rally attempt failed: sellers pushed Bitcoin lower again with $92.7M in sell pressure

Bitcoin taker flow stays negative as CVD compresses 70%. A brief July 8 rally was erased by a $92.7M sell wave. Watch the $62K level and CVD zero.

Jul 8 Liquidity & flows

The Fuel is running out: Stablecoin Market Cap has shrunk by $3 Billion

Stablecoin exchange inflows sit 31% below the yearly norm and USDT+USDC market cap is shrinking $3B/month. No fuel for BTC until flows reverse.

Jul 7 Market cycles

Strategy Sells 3,588 BTC, but Price holds near $63K

Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for $216M, its largest sale ever. Price held near $63K but derivatives positioning cooled sharply into bearish territory.