Bitcoin on-chain analysis by Axel Adler Jr.
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Binance Hack: Estimated Losses of $6.3 Billion
Read the briefBinance reported unauthorized withdrawals and put its preliminary loss estimate at $6.3 billion. Around $3 billion has been frozen on-chain, and the investigation is ongoing.
TL;DR
Some of the assets have been frozen. For the market, the key developments now are the resumption of withdrawals and further movements of the attacker’s coins.
- $6.3B
- Estimated Binance losses
- $3B
- Frozen on-chain
- $6.01B
- Withdrawn across nine chains
- $2.80B
- Frozen, per Arkham
Binance Hack: $6.01B Stolen, $2.80B Frozen
According to Arkham, $6.01 billion was withdrawn from Binance wallets across nine blockchains between 20:10 and 23:05 UTC on October 29. Of that amount, $2.80 billion has been frozen. These figures differ from Binance’s preliminary estimate, so combining them into a single calculation of the remaining losses would be incorrect.
Binance’s preliminary findings suggest the attacker may have accessed an internal service through a compromised DevOps engineer’s laptop. The exchange has so far found no evidence of a private key leak. Binance has pledged to cover the losses using SAFU and company funds and to publish an updated Proof of Reserves once remediation is complete.
Binance Hack Transaction Patterns
Julio Moreno’s analysis compares the October 29 transfers with large Binance withdrawals over the previous three months. On Bitcoin, the coins were split across new addresses in successive batches of 1,000 BTC. On Ethereum, a batch withdrawal of roughly 167,000 ETH stands out, while on USDT, the notable transfer was 1.615 billion tokens sent to a new address.
The comparison shows that these transactions differ from Binance’s usual large withdrawals in their structure, recipients, and transfer sizes, supporting the conclusion that the movements were abnormal.
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FAQ
Have the frozen funds already been returned to Binance? No. Freezing restricts further movement of the assets. Their return requires separate confirmation.
Have the withdrawn coins already been sold? No, these transfers do not establish that. Moving coins to a new address does not by itself mean they have been sold, so the full amount withdrawn cannot be treated as supply already sold into the market.
Conclusions
Binance has pledged to cover all losses, but the investigation and service restoration are still underway. According to the latest update, deposits are operating normally, while withdrawals remain suspended; the exchange expects to resume them within 48 hours. I am watching for the actual resumption of withdrawals, updated reserves, and movements of the stolen assets. Further swaps or sales of coins still accessible to the attacker could put additional pressure on the market.
Live Charts
Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:
Exchange Netflow - Net BTC moving to and from exchanges across positive and negative flow regimes.
Coinbase Premium Index - Coinbase vs global market premium as a proxy for US spot demand pressure.
Fear & Greed Index - Composite market sentiment for risk appetite and sentiment extremes.
One chart, read for today
Each day one chart from the hub, with its latest value and date.
Briefs that explain the market best
Bitcoin 6% Above Its Yearly Average for the First Time Since November
Read the briefTwo Out of Three Metrics Confirm Bearish Phase
Bitcoin is trading at $97.6K, 21.8% below its October peak, two out of three metrics indicate a transition to a bearish phase, Death Cross may occur within the next 24 hours, marking the final transition to the red zone.
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Latest briefs
LTH distribution fell 22% over the week
Derivatives & sentimentMarket sentiment has cooled: the Fear & Greed Index falls to 51
Holder behaviorShort-Term Holders Are Actively Realizing Losses
Holder behaviorBitcoin Is 6% Above Young Coins' Cost Basis: The Cushion Is Shrinking
Liquidity & flowsExchange outflows at 1.5K BTC per day, futures neutral
Holder behaviorBitcoin Is 11% Above Short-Term Holders' Cost Basis
Holder behaviorWhales’ Unrealized Profit Fell 53% as Exchange Inflows Rose
Technical analysisBitcoin in a Correction: 1.5% Above Support
Holder behaviorLong-Term Holders Have Reduced Their Holdings by 345,000 BTC
Holder behaviorBitcoin holdings among new short-term holders rose by 422K BTC
Derivatives & sentimentInflation Accelerated, Bitcoin Fell 3.3%, and Open Interest Is Rising
Technical analysisBollinger Band Width Narrows to 4.9%: The Market Has Entered a Compression Phase
Holder behaviorLong-Term Holders in Profit Since 2023, With a 72% Cushion
MiningFees account for less than 1% of miner revenue: older miners under pressure
Derivatives & sentiment$520 Million in Long Liquidations: Stress Approached Three-Month Peaks
Market cyclesBitcoin fell to $82.8K after the release of the Fed minutes
Derivatives & sentimentBitcoin fell 2%, sellers gained the upper hand
Holder behaviorLong-term holders are reducing their positions for the seventh consecutive week, while the market absorbs the supply
Holder behaviorBitcoin 15% Above Cost Basis: Short-Term Holders Are Building Positions
Derivatives & sentimentBuying pressure rose to 4.9 - the highest since August
Holder behaviorShort-term holder cost basis rises, Bitcoin remains 14% above it
Holder behaviorBitcoin: 72% of Coins in Profit, Upward Momentum Has Fallen to Zero
Holder behaviorProfit-Taking Is Weaker Than in August After Bitcoin’s Rise to $87K
Liquidity & flowsNet Exchange Outflows Exceed 16K BTC per Day
Bitcoin on-chain analysis, explained
What is Bitcoin on-chain analysis?
It is reading Bitcoin's public blockchain data to see what holders actually do: at what price they bought, whether long-term holders are selling, and how much BTC moves to and from exchanges. Price shows what happened. On-chain data shows who is behind the move.
Which on-chain metrics do you track?
The cost basis of holder groups (Realized Price, MVRV), short-term and long-term holders, exchange flows, and derivatives data such as funding rates and open interest.
Where does the data come from?
Primarily from CryptoQuant, where I am a Verified Author.
What is the difference between Adler ☕️ AM and Adler 💎 Insight?
Adler ☕️ AM is a free brief, Monday to Friday: two on-chain metrics and what they mean today. Adler 💎 Insight is one weekly report every Monday on Substack, $30 per month: the whole week put together in a short read.
Who is Axel Adler Jr.?
A Bitcoin on-chain analyst and CryptoQuant Verified Author, with 28K followers on X. My analysis has been cited by more than 1,000 news outlets.