Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief
Daily Bitcoin analysis focused on market structure, liquidity flows, and macro signals. Adler AM is updated 5脳 per week - clear insights, no noise.
LTHs are Realizing Losses, but Their Cost Basis is 30% Below the Market Price
Liquidity & flowsBitcoin Rebounds to $64.6K, but Fresh Demand has not Returned
Holder behaviorBitcoin remains in the high-stress zone: the indicator reached 71.5
Bitcoin's Profit/Loss Stress Score is back above 70 at 71.5, with most supply underwater. Weekly momentum is turning up - watch the 70 level.
Derivatives & sentimentBitcoin sentiment is deteriorating, but the market is not in the Fear zone yet
Bitcoin's Unified Sentiment Index is at -13, still Neutral but sliding toward Fear. History shows +3.4% median 30-day returns; watch the -20 line.
Holder behaviorBitcoin is Shifting from Speculators to Long-Term Holders
STH realized-cap share fell to 23%, a multi-year low, while LTH share hit 52%. Supply is aging into strong hands, but demand has not yet returned
Technical analysisThe market is boring, but stress is back for the second time in three days
Bitcoin's Local Market Stress Index rose to 16, driven by price alone. Exchange flows stay absent, so escalation above 40 is unlikely for now.
Liquidity & flowsBitcoin Price Remains Weak While Exchange Flows Stay Neutral
Bitcoin inflows near multi-year lows; Netflow neutral near zero. Exchange flows don't confirm selling - watch inflows and Netflow rise together.
Holder behaviorBitcoin Supply in Profit Rose to 56%, but the Quarterly Trend Remains Negative
Bitcoin supply in profit recovered to 56% from June's 47% low, but the 90-day change stays negative. A cross above zero would confirm a reversal.
Valuation modelsBitcoin valuation is four times lower than its historical average
MVRV Z-Score at multi-year lows but never went negative: Bitcoin is undervalued, not capitulated. Realized P/L turned positive as selling eases.
Holder behaviorHolders' Realized Losses exceeded the 2022 peak by 19%
Bitcoin Realized Loss 30DMA peaked 19% above 2022 and has since cooled 56% to $597M, while Realized Profit sits at $257M. Watch the 1.0 P/L ratio.
Liquidity & flowsUS Investors are buying Bitcoin again: ETFs have drawn $439M so far this week
Coinbase Premium Index at -0.042 after 78 days below zero, while weekly US spot ETF flows return to +$439M. ETF cohort still 22% underwater.
Technical analysisVolatility has fallen 31% in July, leverage is declining: liquidation cascade risk has decreased
Realized volatility sits in the bottom 10% since 2016 while OI/market cap falls for 21 days. Leverage is exiting; watch the 200DMA at 72,666.