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LTHs are Realizing Losses, but Their Cost Basis is 30% Below the Market Price

Bitcoin Rebounds to $64.6K, but Fresh Demand has not Returned

Bitcoin Price Prediction for August 2026: On-Chain and Macro Outlook

Bitcoin price prediction for August 2026 with historical performance, support and resistance, macro outlook, ETF flows, and on-chain data.

Bitcoin remains in the high-stress zone: the indicator reached 71.5

Bitcoin's Profit/Loss Stress Score is back above 70 at 71.5, with most supply underwater. Weekly momentum is turning up - watch the 70 level.

Bitcoin sentiment is deteriorating, but the market is not in the Fear zone yet

Bitcoin's Unified Sentiment Index is at -13, still Neutral but sliding toward Fear. History shows +3.4% median 30-day returns; watch the -20 line.

Bitcoin is Shifting from Speculators to Long-Term Holders

STH realized-cap share fell to 23%, a multi-year low, while LTH share hit 52%. Supply is aging into strong hands, but demand has not yet returned

The market is boring, but stress is back for the second time in three days

Bitcoin's Local Market Stress Index rose to 16, driven by price alone. Exchange flows stay absent, so escalation above 40 is unlikely for now.

Bitcoin Price Remains Weak While Exchange Flows Stay Neutral

Bitcoin inflows near multi-year lows; Netflow neutral near zero. Exchange flows don't confirm selling - watch inflows and Netflow rise together.

Bitcoin Supply in Profit Rose to 56%, but the Quarterly Trend Remains Negative

Bitcoin supply in profit recovered to 56% from June's 47% low, but the 90-day change stays negative. A cross above zero would confirm a reversal.

Bitcoin valuation is four times lower than its historical average

MVRV Z-Score at multi-year lows but never went negative: Bitcoin is undervalued, not capitulated. Realized P/L turned positive as selling eases.

Holders' Realized Losses exceeded the 2022 peak by 19%

Bitcoin Realized Loss 30DMA peaked 19% above 2022 and has since cooled 56% to $597M, while Realized Profit sits at $257M. Watch the 1.0 P/L ratio.

US Investors are buying Bitcoin again: ETFs have drawn $439M so far this week

Coinbase Premium Index at -0.042 after 78 days below zero, while weekly US spot ETF flows return to +$439M. ETF cohort still 22% underwater.