All briefsAdler AM, every weekday morning.
Every Adler AM brief: two on-chain metrics and what they mean, newest first.
The May Rally Has Been Erased: Bitcoin Under Pressure From Spot and Futures
Bitcoin's May rally has unwound to the $70K zone as exchange netflows flipped to inflows and long liquidations dominate. Watch 30D netflow for a turn.
Technical analysisVolatility Fell 56%, Premium Compressed: The Spring Is Loaded
Bitcoin realized volatility fell 56% to multi-year lows as market cap grows slower than realized cap. A coiled, de-risked setup. Watch the 200-day average.
The Bitcoin Weekly Decision System
Went to cash at $114,788 and still hasn't bought back. Get one clear Bitcoin decision every Sunday - buy, hold, or exit - with triggers and invalidation.
Liquidity & flows7,048 BTC Were Withdrawn From IBIT, Strategy Wallets Sent Coins to Coinbase Prime
BlackRock withdrew 7,048 BTC from IBIT while Strategy-linked wallets sent 411 BTC to Coinbase Prime. Supply is moving closer to the order book.
Liquidity & flows+103K BTC to exchanges over 30 days: sellers are returning, buyers are leaving
Bitcoin 30D net flow flips positive at +103K BTC as stablecoins drain from exchanges. Double risk-off signal - what triggers a regime change.
Technical analysisIn 3 Weeks, Market Structure Reversed: STH are Realizing Losses
Bitcoin Structure Shift fell from +0.78 to -0.56 in 3 weeks. STH flipped to loss-taking. Price tests Donchian Support at $74.5K.
Derivatives & sentimentSellers Are Taking Back Control: Taker Score Collapsed from 84 to 31 in 24 Hours
Bitcoin Taker Score collapsed 84 to 31 in 24h while price held flat. Buyer demand vanished as futures microstructure tilts risk-off.
Liquidity & flowsSellers Increase Pressure: +34K BTC in One Week
Exchange netflow rose +18K BTC while US spot ETFs lost 16K BTC, creating 34K BTC of local selling pressure with no demand to absorb it.
Holder behaviorSellers are Pressing: STH Underwater, Network Realizes Losses
Bitcoin Net Realized P/L turned negative at -$176M as STH cost basis holds at $80.2K above price. Watch $80.2K for regime shift signal.
Liquidity & flowsBitcoin Bounced Toward $77K, but Coinbase Premium Shows No Demand From the U.S.
Coinbase Premium Index hit −0.098 - the lowest in May. BTC futures OI stayed flat at 293–303K BTC. The bounce lacks U.S. demand confirmation.
Technical analysisBullish Impulse Broken: Macro Pressure Intensifies
Bitcoin Slow Impulse turned negative as 30-year UST yield hit 5.20%. Bullish structure broken - watch for Slow Impulse to recross zero as key reversal trigger.
Holder behaviorSupply in Profit Recovered to 63%, but STH-SOPR Has Not Held Above 1.0
Bitcoin Supply in Profit SMA-7D recovered from 53.6% to 63% since March lows. STH-SOPR remains near 1.0 without confirmation. Key level: $76k–$77k.