All briefsAdler AM, every weekday morning.
Every Adler AM brief: two on-chain metrics and what they mean, newest first.
Gold was bought back, Bitcoin was not: BTC fell below $64K after the Fed
The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% with a hawkish dot plot. Bitcoin fell 4% below $64K while gold rebounded above $4,300, a risk-off signal.
Holder behaviorThe Second Capitulation Wave Is Almost Twice as Weak as February鈥檚 Panic
Bitcoin's second capitulation wave peaked near $1.4B, almost half February's $2.6B. Seller exhaustion builds as the P/L ratio sits deep in capitulation.
Valuation models$60K becomes the new accumulation zone: the cycle's potential bottom is $48K
Bitcoin SSRR hit the red zone at $60K as supply in loss overtook profit. CVDD marks the structural floor near $48K, the key downside level to watch.
Derivatives & sentimentThe rally off $60K: bullish taker demand is back, Funding Rate remains positive
Bitcoin bounced from $60K to $65.6K on returning taker demand, not a short squeeze. Funding Rate stayed positive 10 days straight - watch for overheating.
Liquidity & flowsBitcoin is moving onto exchanges and increasing sell pressure, while stablecoins are leaving
BTC exchange inflows hit +114K while stablecoin flow fell to -105M. Supply up, demand fading - the structural cause of Bitcoin's 22% drop.
MiningThe Puell Multiple is declining - miners are entering the stress zone
Puell Multiple 30DMA drops to 0.74 as miner revenue compresses. How current stress compares to 2018 and 2022 bottoms, and key levels to watch next.
Holder behavior$12B Left the Network, Loss-Taking Sales Dominate
Realized Cap 30D Change falls to -1.1% as $12B leaves the Bitcoin network. aSOPR below 1 for 13 days confirms capitulation. Key trigger: aSOPR above 1.0.
Valuation models22 Days of Net Losses: MVRV Z Cooled to 0.32
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score cooled to 0.32 as net realized losses ran 22 straight days. Stress is real but valuation already reset; watch losses ease to zero.
Derivatives & sentimentPrice is rising, Open Interest is falling: a rebound without new leverage
Bitcoin bounced 3.7% off $60K, but Open Interest fell 6% with positive funding - a short-covering rebound, not new leverage. Watch OI for confirmation.
Holder behaviorBitcoin Tests the February Low: $7B in Losses, Nearest Support $54K
Bitcoin tests its $62K February low as net realized losses hit $7B. The $54K aggregate cost basis is the final support before full capitulation.
Derivatives & sentiment$62K Under Pressure Again: Fear at the Extreme
Bitcoin sentiment hits extreme fear while capital flows stay moderate, not capitulation. Watch $62K - the February low - to hold or break.
Technical analysisBearish impulse accelerated to -59: taker-order pressure is moving negative again
Bitcoin Impulse has collapsed to -59 while 30-day taker demand just turned negative. Momentum leads; watch the Bear line for confirmation.