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# Two Out of Three Metrics Confirm Bearish Phase
- URL: https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/two-out-of-three-metrics-confirm-bearish-phase/
- Published: 2025-11-14T09:52:00.000Z
- Updated: 2026-04-23T11:18:36.000Z
- Description: Bitcoin is trading at $97.6K, 21.8% below its October peak, two out of three metrics indicate a transition to a bearish phase, Death Cross may occur within the next 24 hours, marking the final transition to the red zone.
- Author: Axel Adler Jr.
- Tags: Technical analysis, Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, #Import 2026-11-01 20:37

Bitcoin is trading at $97.6K, 21.8% below its October peak, two out of three metrics indicate a transition to a bearish phase, Death Cross may occur within the next 24 hours, marking the final transition to the red zone.

## TL;DR

A Death Cross will form on the market in the coming hours, confirming the third bearish signal.

$97.6K

BTC price

21.8%

Below the October peak

### **Bitcoin Bear/Bull Market 1Y**

![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2025/11/Bitcoin-Bear_Bull-Market-1Y-v.2.0.png)

Annual Bitcoin chart with bull/bear market indicators, showing SMA50, SMA200 and market regime changes with color-coded market structure.

Two out of three metrics are already bearish - price is 11.7% below [SMA200](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-moving-averages/), lower highs/lower lows structure since November 13\. The chart shows a classic transition from bullish phase (green bars until October) to bearish (pink-red from November). Current price of $97.6K is trading below both moving averages: SMA50 = $111K, SMA200 = $110.5K. Critical moment for the market.

According to Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs standards:  
(1) trend relative to SMA200 - bearish,  
(2) price structure - bearish,  
(3) **Death Cross on the verge of formation**.   
  
At the current pace, Death Cross will occur tomorrow, adding the third bearish signal and definitively repainting the regime to Strong Bear.

### **Bitcoin Support and Resistance**

![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2025/11/Bitcoin-Support-and-Resistance-3.png)

Bitcoin support and resistance levels displaying various time horizons of STH Realized Price and key SMAs.

All key metrics have flipped to resistance. A complete structural inversion has occurred on the chart: what was previously support (STH metrics, annual MA) now presses from above. Below $102K there's a vacuum down to the $87K and $74K zones - these are levels where the base was formed in March-April. The Bitcoin Bear/Bull Market 1Y chart shows the reversal (two metrics bearish, third on the edge), while the Bitcoin [Support and Resistance](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-support-resistance/) chart demonstrates the result of this reversal - complete absence of support above $102K and dense overhead resistance in the $109-115K zone. 

[![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2025/11/ADLER-INSIGHT-Report-71-2.png)](https://open.substack.com/pub/adlerscryptoinsights/p/bitcoin-strategy-and-structure-shift?r=46gt68&utm%5Fcampaign=post&utm%5Fmedium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false)

[Bitcoin Strategy & Structure Shift | W3 November 2025](https://open.substack.com/pub/adlerscryptoinsights/p/bitcoin-strategy-and-structure-shift?r=46gt68&utm%5Fcampaign=post&utm%5Fmedium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false)

### **FAQ**  

**What does the current picture on the Bear/Bull Market 1Y chart mean?**  
The market has technically turned bearish. Death Cross within the next 24 hours will settle the matter definitively.

**How to interpret the signals from the Support and Resistance chart in today's context?**  
The chart shows structural weakness, all key metrics have flipped from support to resistance.

### **CONCLUSIONS**  

Death Cross occurs within the next 24 hours at a price below **$102.4K**, triggering the transition to bearish regime and leading to a test of **$87K**

## Live Charts

Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:

[Technical Analysis](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/technical-analysis/) \- All price, trend, and momentum charts in one view.  
[Moving Averages](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-moving-averages/) \- BTC price against its 50-, 111-, 200- and 365-day averages.  
[Support / Resistance](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-support-resistance/) \- On-chain cost-basis levels that act as support and resistance.