> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Short-Term Holders Are Actively Realizing Losses - URL: https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/short-term-holders-are-actively-realizing-losses/ - Published: 2026-10-27T07:17:04.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-27T07:42:54.000Z - Author: Axel Adler Jr. - Tags: Holder behavior, Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, #Import 2026-11-01 20:37 A week ago, short-term holders were sending coins to exchanges at a profit. Now, the balance has shifted toward losses. The 24-hour inflow balance has turned negative. ## TL;DR Short-term holders continue to send coins to exchanges at a loss. We examine the size of this imbalance and what would signal that it is easing. ### **Bitcoin STH Net Profit** ![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/10/Bitcoin-STH-Net-Profit---24h-.png) Bitcoin STH Net Profit On October 27, the 24-hour inflow balance stands at -18.6K BTC, compared with +10.4K BTC a week earlier. The indicator tracks inflows of coins younger than six months, with a negative reading indicating that coins moved at a loss dominate exchange inflows. On October 26, the balance fell to -23.1K BTC. The negative imbalance has since narrowed but remains substantial, as it has since August of this year. A return above zero would show that inflows associated with profit-taking are dominant again. ### **Bitcoin STH Exchange Inflow Profitable Hours** ![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/10/Bitcoin-STH-Exchange-Inflow-Profitable-Hours.png) Bitcoin STH Exchange Inflow Profitable Hours Over the week ending October 27, the indicator fell from 75% to 16%. Most exchange inflows are now associated with realized losses. A return above 50% would show that most inflows once again occur during periods of profit-taking. Below that level, losses continue to dominate. > *Invest in Bitcoin with discipline, not emotion.* [*Start here*](https://a.dler.click/insight?ref=dev.axeladlerjr.com) *and follow a clear, rules-based system built to keep fear, FOMO, and panic selling out of every decision.* ### **FAQ** ***Does a negative balance mean that 18.6K BTC were sold at a loss?*** No. This is the balance of exchange inflows, not confirmed sales volume. Sending coins to an exchange does not mean they have been sold. ***Does a 16.4% share mean that this percentage of holders is in profit?*** It shows the share of inflows that occurred during periods of profit-taking. It is currently at its lowest level. ### **Conclusions** Short-term holders are sending coins to exchanges at a loss. The negative imbalance has narrowed since the October 26 low, but stress persists. A return of Profitable Hours above 50% and the balance above zero would show that profit-taking is dominant again. The main risk is a renewed increase in inflows associated with realized losses. ## Know what matters in Bitcoin before your day starts A 3-minute morning brief, 5 mornings a week - on-chain, ETF flows, derivatives, and macro, with one clear takeaway for today. Get the Brief Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. Free. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ## Live Charts Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts: [STH-SOPR](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-sth-sopr/) \- Short-term holder profit/loss behavior around the 1.0 breakeven threshold. [Exchange Netflow](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-exchange-netflow/) \- Net BTC moving to and from exchanges across positive and negative flow regimes. [SOPR](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-sopr/) \- Spent Output Profit Ratio shows whether moved coins realize profit or loss. [Supply in Loss](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-supply-in-loss/) \- Share of supply held at a loss to flag stress and capitulation zones.