> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Short-term holder cost basis rises, Bitcoin remains 14% above it - URL: https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/short-term-holder-cost-basis-rises-bitcoin-remains-14-above-it/ - Published: 2026-10-01T07:36:22.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-01T07:37:09.000Z - Author: Axel Adler Jr. - Tags: Holder behavior, Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, #Import 2026-11-01 20:37 Bitcoin is trading at $83.7K, 14% above the short-term holder cost basis. Over the past week, their cost basis rose 1.2% to $73.7K. The long-term holder cost basis fell to $48.8K, with Bitcoin remaining 72% above that level. ## TL;DR Bitcoin remains above the cost basis of both holder groups. Short-term holders retain a 13.7% unrealized profit despite the rising cost basis of their coins. For long-term holders, that figure is 72%. $83.7K BTC price $73.7K STH cost basis 13.7% STH unrealized profit 72% LTH unrealized profit ### **Bitcoin STH Realized Price 7D Change** ![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/10/Bitcoin-STH-Realized-Price-7D-Change.png) Bitcoin STH Realized Price From September 24 to October 1, the short-term holder cost basis rose from $72.8K to $73.7K, while Bitcoin's price was nearly unchanged. The group retains an average unrealized profit of 13.7%, compared with 15.4% a week earlier. The short-term holder cost basis has been rising since August 20, but Bitcoin still trades well above it. On average, the group remains in profit. Meanwhile, cost basis growth has slowed: the weekly increase was 2.2% on September 23 and is now 1.2%. Renewed gains in Bitcoin will increase the profit cushion if its price starts rising faster than the cost basis. The current STH RP of $73.7K remains the group's average breakeven level. ### **Bitcoin LTH Realized Price 7D Change** ![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/10/Bitcoin-LTH-Realized-Price-7D-Change.png) Bitcoin LTH Realized Price The long-term holder cost basis fell 0.3% over the past week, from $48.9K to $48.8K. This is one of the fastest weekly declines this year. Bitcoin trades 72% above that level, so the group retains a substantial unrealized profit. Two processes affect the cost basis: coins entering the long-term holder group as they age and leaving it when they move. One possible explanation for the current decline is the movement of coins with a cost basis above the group's average. Once moved, these coins enter the short-term holder group at the current price, which can raise its cost basis. A return of the weekly change in LTH RP to zero would mean the group's cost basis is stabilizing. > *Reading the signal is not enough - you need to act on it. Weekly Engine turns on-chain data into one clear decision per week, with risk caps and invalidation built in.* [*Subscribe.*](https://a.dler.click/insight?ref=dev.axeladlerjr.com) ### **FAQ** **Does a decline in the long-term holder cost basis mean they are selling?** No, not necessarily. Holders can transfer coins between their own wallets without selling, but these movements usually represent sales. **Is a rising short-term holder cost basis a bad sign?** Not on its own. Bitcoin remains 13.7% above their average cost basis, so short-term holders remain in profit on average. ### **Conclusions** Both holder groups remain in profit: Bitcoin is 13.7% above the short-term holder cost basis and 72% above the long-term holder cost basis. Further expansion of the STH profit cushion requires price growth to outpace cost basis growth. The group's current average breakeven level is $73.7K. ## Know what matters in Bitcoin before your day starts A 3-minute morning brief, 5 mornings a week - on-chain, ETF flows, derivatives, and macro, with one clear takeaway for today. Get the Brief Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. Free. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. **Live Charts** Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts: [Realized Price](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-realized-price/) \- Aggregate on-chain cost basis compared with BTC price and long-term trend. [LTH vs STH Supply](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-lth-vs-sth-supply/) \- Supply split between long- and short-term holders to track accumulation and distribution. [STH-SOPR](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-sth-sopr/) \- Short-term holder profit/loss behavior around the 1.0 breakeven threshold. [LTH-SOPR](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-lth-sopr/) \- Long-term holder profit/loss realization around the 1.0 breakeven threshold. [Holder Behavior](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/holder-behavior/) \- All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view. ## Live Charts Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts: [Holder Behavior](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/holder-behavior/) \- All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view. [Realized Price](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-realized-price/) \- Aggregate on-chain cost basis compared with BTC price and long-term trend. [LTH vs STH Supply](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-lth-vs-sth-supply/) \- Supply split between long- and short-term holders to track accumulation and distribution. [STH-SOPR](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-sth-sopr/) \- Short-term holder profit/loss behavior around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.