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# Bitcoin Is 37% Above Long-Term Holders' Cost Basis
- URL: https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-is-37-above-long-term-holders-cost-basis/
- Published: 2026-09-23T07:46:28.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-23T08:10:58.000Z
- Author: Axel Adler Jr.
- Tags: Holder behavior, Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, #Import 2026-11-01 20:37

Long-term holders have gone from near-zero profit to being 37% above their average purchase price.

## TL;DR

Bitcoin is hitting a new high in the current bull cycle, and long-term holders are back in solid profit after weeks near breakeven.

### **Bitcoin Bull Market Correction Drawdowns**

![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/09/Bitcoin-Bull-Market-Correction-Drawdowns.png)

Bitcoin Bull Market Correction Drawdowns

On September 22, price reached $87,200 - a new high for this bull cycle, with the drawdown from that high now at zero. Over less than three months from the cycle low, price is up 46%.

The deepest drawdown within the cycle was just 6%, on September 16\. Worth watching is whether corrections stay as shallow as they did in 2015-2018, or start widening the way they did in 2018-2022.

### **Bitcoin Long-Term Holder adjusted MVRV (6M-10Y Cohort)**

![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/09/Bitcoin-Long-Term-Holder-adjusted-MVRV--6M-10Y-Cohort-.png)

Bitcoin LTH adjusted MVRV (6M-10Y Cohort)

As of September 23, bitcoin is trading at $86,406, while the average purchase price for long-term holders (six months and older) sits at $62,706\. The group is now 37% above its cost basis. A week earlier, on September 15, the profit buffer stood at 20% - the cost basis barely moved, so the gain came entirely from bitcoin's price.

In early August this cohort briefly came close to a loss, with the cost basis nearly converging with the purchase price, before the rally began.

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### **FAQ**

**If long-term holders' MVRV is above 1, does that mean the whole group is in profit?** No. This is the group's average cost basis. Some holders bought above the current price and remain underwater, even when the average shows a profit.

**The new cycle's drawdown is only about 6% - does that mean deeper corrections are off the table?** No. This is just the smallest drawdown seen in the first months of the move. Deeper corrections have occurred at similar stages of past cycles and remain possible.

### **Conclusions**

Bitcoin is at a new cycle high, and long-term holders are holding a profit buffer of 37% - a month ago it was close to nothing. Continued price gains will widen that buffer and push the group further from breakeven.

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### Live Charts

Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:

[MVRV Ratio](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-mvrv-ratio/) \- Market value vs realized value to identify valuation regimes and cycle risk.  
[Realized Price](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-realized-price/) \- Aggregate on-chain cost basis compared with BTC price and long-term trend.  
[LTH-SOPR](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-lth-sopr/) \- Long-term holder profit/loss realization around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.  
[Supply in Profit](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-supply-in-profit/) \- Share of circulating supply in profit as a cycle-phase and euphoria gauge.