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# Bitcoin Is 11% Above Short-Term Holders' Cost Basis
- URL: https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-is-11-above-short-term-holders-cost-basis/
- Published: 2026-10-22T07:09:52.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-22T07:09:52.000Z
- Author: Axel Adler Jr.
- Tags: Holder behavior, Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, #Import 2026-11-01 20:37

The share of new capital in Bitcoin has risen from 6.6% in early July to 11.2%. New buyers have an 11% unrealized profit cushion.

## TL;DR

New money is gradually returning to Bitcoin. A look at how well short-term holders are positioned at the current price.

11%

Price above STH cost basis

11.2%

Share of new capital

6.6%

Early July level

### **Bitcoin New Investors**

![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/10/Bitcoin-New-Investors.png)

Bitcoin New Investors

As of October 21, new investors account for 11.2% of capital. On July 5, that share fell to 6.6%, its lowest level this year. Since then, new money has entered the network steadily, without sharp spikes: by the end of September, the share had risen to 10.4%.

Inflows remain more modest than in 2024 and 2025, when the share rose above 20%. If the indicator falls back below 10%, it will mean that new capital inflows have stalled. A rise above the October high of 11.5% will show that demand from new buyers is strengthening.

### **Bitcoin Short-Term Holders MVRV**

![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/10/Bitcoin-Short-Term-Holders-MVRV-1.png)

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders MVRV

Bitcoin is trading at $83K, while short-term holders' average purchase price is $75.1K. This group has been in profit since August 20, for 63 consecutive days. Its profit cushion is now 11%. On October 5, it reached 16%.

The average purchase price has risen from $67.9K on August 1 to $75.1K. This is a direct consequence of the first chart: new participants are buying at higher prices. As a result, without price appreciation, the profit cushion gradually shrinks. If Bitcoin falls below $75.1K, short-term holders will move into a loss.

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### **FAQ**

***If the group is in profit, are all short-term holders in profit?*** No. Those who bought above the current price are already at a loss. The average purchase price does not show each holder's individual return.

***Does a rising share of new investors mean the price will definitely rise?*** No. It shows that new money is returning to the network. Price direction also depends on how other holders behave.

### **Conclusions**

New capital is returning to Bitcoin, and short-term holders remain in profit with an 11% cushion. A rise in price and a further increase in new investors' share will strengthen their position. The main risk is a drop below $75.1K. This would mean that recent buyers are at a loss, and selling pressure from this group could increase.

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### **Live Charts**

Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:

[STH-SOPR](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-sth-sopr/) \- Short-term holder profit/loss behavior around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.  
[LTH vs STH Supply](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-lth-vs-sth-supply/) \- Supply split between long- and short-term holders to track accumulation and distribution.  
[Supply in Profit](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-supply-in-profit/) \- Share of circulating supply in profit as a cycle-phase and euphoria gauge.  
[Realized Price](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-realized-price/) \- Aggregate on-chain cost basis compared with BTC price and long-term trend.  
[Holder Behavior](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/holder-behavior/) \- All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view.