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# Bitcoin Holds Just 7% Above Short-Term Holder Cost Basis
- URL: https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-holds-just-7-above-short-term-holder-cost-basis/
- Published: 2026-09-17T08:34:56.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-17T08:35:42.000Z
- Author: Axel Adler Jr.
- Tags: Holder behavior, Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, #Import 2026-11-01 20:37

Bitcoin is trading at $76.2K, while the average cost basis of coins aged up to six months is $71.3K. Over the past week, the gap between price and cost basis has narrowed, while the exchange inflow P/L indicator has approached zero.

## TL;DR

The profit cushion for holders of younger coins is shrinking. We examine changes in exchange inflows and the cost-basis level whose loss would put more pressure on this group.

$76.2K

BTC price

$71.3K

Young coins’ cost basis

7%

Price above STH cost basis

### **Bitcoin STH Profit/Loss to Exchanges**

![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/09/Bitcoin-STH-ProfitLoss-to-Exchanges.png)

Bitcoin STH Profit/Loss to Exchanges

From September 10 to 17, the metric’s average value fell by roughly 96% and approached zero. The dominance of profit-taking over loss-taking has nearly disappeared. This does not mean holders have stopped sending coins to exchanges: transfers at a loss are now offsetting more of the transfers at a profit.

If the indicator stays below zero, the balance will shift toward loss-taking. This would signal growing stress among short-term holders.

### **Bitcoin STH Cost-Basis Multiples**

![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/09/Bitcoin-STH-Cost-Basis-Multiples.png)

Bitcoin STH Cost-Basis Multiples

As of September 17, Bitcoin is trading at $76.2K, while the average purchase price for short-term holders is $71.3K. Their profit cushion has narrowed from 10% to 7% over the past week: Bitcoin’s price fell, while their average purchase price rose slightly.

If Bitcoin falls below $71.3K, this group will be underwater. If the exchange inflow indicator also turns negative, it would point to increased loss-taking. Together, these signals would indicate growing pressure on short-term holders.

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### **FAQ**

**Does an indicator near zero mean coins have stopped flowing into exchanges?** No. Coins are still flowing in, but transfers at a profit and at a loss are nearly balancing each other out.

**If Bitcoin is above the average purchase price, are all short-term holders in profit?** No. Those who bought above the current price are already underwater. The average purchase price does not reflect each holder’s individual return.

### **Conclusions**

Bitcoin remains above the average purchase price for short-term holders, but their profit cushion is shrinking. Renewed price gains would improve their position. The main risk is a drop below $71.3K alongside the exchange inflow indicator turning negative. This would mean the group is underwater on average, with transfers to exchanges at a loss outweighing those at a profit.

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### Live Charts

Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts:

[STH-SOPR](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-sth-sopr/) \- Short-term holder profit/loss behavior around the 1.0 breakeven threshold.  
[Supply in Loss](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-supply-in-loss/) \- Share of supply held at a loss to flag stress and capitulation zones.  
[Exchange Netflow](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-exchange-netflow/) \- Net BTC moving to and from exchanges across positive and negative flow regimes.  
[Supply in Profit](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-supply-in-profit/) \- Share of circulating supply in profit as a cycle-phase and euphoria gauge.  
[Holder Behavior](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/holder-behavior/) \- All holder profitability and supply-cohort charts in one view.