Bitcoin held on to its weekly gains, but Regime Confidence fell to 22%

Over the past week, Bitcoin rose from $76.5K to $84.0K. Bitcoin Regime Score moved into bullish territory twice, but both surges were brief. The model’s signals now nearly cancel each other out.

Bitcoin Regime Score

Over the past week, Bitcoin rose from $76.5K to $84.0K. Bitcoin Regime Score responded with two brief surges: it reached +52 on September 19 and +64 on September 22, briefly entering Strong Bull territory. It then returned close to zero, even though price held on to most of its weekly gains.

The Score does not currently confirm a sustained bullish regime. Another move above +30 would carry more weight if the Score stayed in bullish territory and the model’s signals became more aligned. A drop below -30 would indicate that bearish signals have gained the upper hand.

Bitcoin Regime Confidence

Bitcoin Regime Confidence shows how clear the model’s signal is. A low reading means some market data point to gains while other data point to losses. When Confidence rises, the model’s signals become more aligned, though they can align in either a bullish or bearish direction. Over the past 24 hours, the reading fell from 50% to 22%, approaching its monthly low of 19%.

For now, the opposing signals nearly cancel each other out. That is why Bitcoin Regime Score is close to zero despite the rise in price over the past week.

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FAQ

If Bitcoin Regime Score is near zero, does that mean the market is calm? No. A reading near zero means the model’s signals are balanced. It says nothing about how volatile the price is.

Did the move into Strong Bull territory on September 22 confirm a regime change? No. The Score stayed above +60 for only a few hours and returned to neutral territory the next day.

Conclusions

Bitcoin is trading at $84.0K, 3.7% below its monthly high of $87.2K. Price held on to most of its weekly gains, but Bitcoin Regime Score returned to neutral and Confidence fell to 22%.

The model offers no clear directional signal right now. A sustained Score above +30 alongside rising Confidence would strengthen the bullish signal. A move back below -30 alongside rising Confidence would indicate a stronger bearish signal.

Live Charts

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