> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Bitcoin held on to its weekly gains, but Regime Confidence fell to 22% - URL: https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-held-on-to-its-weekly-gains-but-regime-confidence-fell-to-22/ - Published: 2026-09-24T08:27:35.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-24T08:27:35.000Z - Author: Axel Adler Jr. - Tags: Derivatives & sentiment, Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, #Import 2026-11-01 20:37 Over the past week, Bitcoin rose from $76.5K to $84.0K. Bitcoin Regime Score moved into bullish territory twice, but both surges were brief. The model’s signals now nearly cancel each other out. ## TL;DR Bitcoin Regime Score returned to +5, while Confidence fell to 22%. The model shows no sustained bullish or bearish edge. +5 Regime Score 22% Regime Confidence $84.0K BTC price ### **Bitcoin Regime Score** ![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/09/Bitcoin-Regime-Score.png) Bitcoin Regime Score Over the past week, Bitcoin rose from $76.5K to $84.0K. Bitcoin Regime Score responded with two brief surges: it reached +52 on September 19 and +64 on September 22, briefly entering Strong Bull territory. It then returned close to zero, even though price held on to most of its weekly gains. The Score does not currently confirm a sustained bullish regime. Another move above +30 would carry more weight if the Score stayed in bullish territory and the model’s signals became more aligned. A drop below -30 would indicate that bearish signals have gained the upper hand. ### **Bitcoin Regime Confidence** ![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/09/Bitcoin-Regime-Confidence.png) Bitcoin Regime Confidence Bitcoin Regime Confidence shows how clear the model’s signal is. A low reading means some market data point to gains while other data point to losses. When Confidence rises, the model’s signals become more aligned, though they can align in either a bullish or bearish direction. Over the past 24 hours, the reading fell from 50% to 22%, approaching its monthly low of 19%. For now, the opposing signals nearly cancel each other out. That is why Bitcoin Regime Score is close to zero despite the rise in price over the past week. > *Invest in Bitcoin with discipline, not emotion. Follow a clear, rules-based system built to keep fear, FOMO, and panic selling out of every decision.* [*Subscribe now.*](https://a.dler.click/insight?ref=dev.axeladlerjr.com) ### **FAQ** ***If Bitcoin Regime Score is near zero, does that mean the market is calm?*** No. A reading near zero means the model’s signals are balanced. It says nothing about how volatile the price is. ***Did the move into Strong Bull territory on September 22 confirm a regime change?*** No. The Score stayed above +60 for only a few hours and returned to neutral territory the next day. ### **Conclusions** Bitcoin is trading at $84.0K, 3.7% below its monthly high of $87.2K. Price held on to most of its weekly gains, but Bitcoin Regime Score returned to neutral and Confidence fell to 22%. The model offers no clear directional signal right now. A sustained Score above +30 alongside rising Confidence would strengthen the bullish signal. A move back below -30 alongside rising Confidence would indicate a stronger bearish signal. ## Know what matters in Bitcoin before your day starts A 3-minute morning brief, 5 mornings a week - on-chain, ETF flows, derivatives, and macro, with one clear takeaway for today. Get the Brief Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. Free. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ### Live Charts Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts: [Fear & Greed Index](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/) \- Composite market sentiment for risk appetite and sentiment extremes. [Funding Rates](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-funding-rates/) \- Perpetual futures funding to track long-side or short-side leverage pressure. [Open Interest (BTC)](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-open-interest-btc/) \- Total futures positioning and 7-day BTC-denominated change. [Exchange Netflow](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-exchange-netflow/) \- Net BTC moving to and from exchanges across positive and negative flow regimes. [BTC US ETF Flow Monitor](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-etf-flow-monitor/) \- US spot Bitcoin ETF daily flow, BTC-denominated accumulation, and fund leadership.