> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Bitcoin fell to $82.8K after the release of the Fed minutes - URL: https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-fell-to-82-8k-after-the-release-of-the-fed-minutes/ - Published: 2026-10-08T06:14:28.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-08T06:15:07.000Z - Author: Axel Adler Jr. - Tags: Market cycles, Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, #Import 2026-11-01 20:37 The minutes from the Fed's September meeting showed that most participants consider another rate hike likely by year-end. By the morning after the release, bitcoin had fallen to $82.8K. ## TL;DR The Fed remains on a tightening path, while bitcoin continues a decline that began before the minutes were released. We examine the document and changes in the market regime. ### **Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee** ![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/10/Board-of-Governors-of-the-Federal-Reserve-System.jpg) Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee The minutes from the Fed's September 15-16 meeting confirm its tightening stance. At that meeting, the Fed unanimously raised rates by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75-4.00%. Most participants believed another increase would likely be needed by year-end, but no specific meeting was identified. The main reason is insufficient progress in bringing inflation down. Fed staff raised their inflation forecast for 2026-2028 and do not expect inflation to return to 2% until 2029\. If new data confirm persistent price pressures, the case for a rate hike will strengthen. Further tightening will raise financing costs and could increase pressure on stocks and bitcoin. ### **Bitcoin Regime Score** ![](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/content/images/2026/10/Bitcoin-Regime-Score.png) Bitcoin Regime Score The minutes were released on October 7 at 18:00 UTC. After the release, bitcoin held at $83.4K for a while, but by 04:00 UTC on October 8, it had fallen to $82.8K. Over that period, the Regime Score fluctuated between -26 and -22, reaching -22 by morning. The decline began before the minutes were released. Overnight on October 7, the price fell from $85.5K to $83.9K. Over the week, bitcoin fell 1.6%, while the Score declined from -13 to -22. If the indicator falls below -30, it will enter bearish territory. A return above zero will show that positive signals once again outweigh negative ones. > *Stop holding through every crash. Weekly Engine tells you when to stay in, when to step aside, and when risk is rising.* [*Get access.*](https://a.dler.click/insight?ref=dev.axeladlerjr.com) ### **FAQ** ***Was the entire October 7 decline related to the minutes?*** No. Most of the decline occurred before the release, with the sharp drop beginning overnight, roughly 16 hours before the document came out. From $83.4K in the evening to $82.8K the following morning, the price fell another 0.8%. ***Does a reading of -22 indicate a bear market?*** No. On the Regime Score scale, bearish territory begins below -30\. The indicator is currently in the neutral zone, but its negative reading indicates that bears have the edge. ### **Conclusions** By the morning after the minutes were released, bitcoin had fallen to $82.8K. The Regime Score remains in the neutral zone, with negative signals outweighing positive ones. A return above zero will indicate an improvement in the balance of signals. A drop below -30 will mark the indicator's transition into bearish territory. ## Know what matters in Bitcoin before your day starts A 3-minute morning brief, 5 mornings a week - on-chain, ETF flows, derivatives, and macro, with one clear takeaway for today. Get the Brief Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. Free. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. ### Live Charts Explore the metrics behind this brief with live, auto-updating charts: [Open Interest (BTC)](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-open-interest-btc/) \- Total futures positioning and 7-day BTC-denominated change. [Funding Rates](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-funding-rates/) \- Perpetual futures funding to track long-side or short-side leverage pressure. [BTC US ETF Flow Monitor](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-etf-flow-monitor/) \- US spot Bitcoin ETF daily flow, BTC-denominated accumulation, and fund leadership. [Exchange Netflow](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-exchange-netflow/) \- Net BTC moving to and from exchanges across positive and negative flow regimes. [Fear & Greed Index](https://dev.axeladlerjr.com/charts/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/) — Composite market sentiment for risk appetite and sentiment extremes.